South Africa has reopened a major trade investigation into frozen chicken imports from Germany, the Netherlands and the United Kingdom, with the country’s poultry industry seeking continued protection against what it says could be renewed dumping and further pressure on local producers if existing anti-dumping duties are allowed to expire.
The International Trade Administration Commission of South Africa (ITAC) has initiated a sunset review of the anti-dumping measures on frozen bone-in chicken portions from the three European countries after finding prima facie evidence that their expiry could result in the continuation or recurrence of dumping and material injury to the Southern African Customs Union (SACU) poultry industry. The review was launched just days before the current duties are due to expire on August 22, putting the future of the measures at the centre of a fresh debate over poultry imports, consumer prices and the sustainability of domestic production.
The application was submitted by the South African Poultry Association (SAPA) on behalf of the SACU poultry industry, with information provided by several major producers, including Astral’s County Fair, Festive and Goldi operations, Grain Field Chickens, Rainbow, Sovereign Foods and Supreme Poultry. The industry argues that allowing the duties to lapse could expose local producers to increased import competition at a time when they are already dealing with high production costs and other pressures affecting profitability.
The latest investigation is not the first time South Africa has used trade-remedy measures to shield its poultry industry from alleged dumping. ITAC previously investigated frozen bone-in chicken portions from Germany, the Netherlands and the UK following a SAPA application, ultimately finding evidence of dumping and material injury to the SACU industry. In that earlier investigation, ITAC linked the dumped imports to effects including price suppression, price undercutting, declining profits, lower returns on investment, reduced capacity utilisation and negative effects on net cash flow.
The current review is particularly significant because anti-dumping duties are generally designed to expire after five years unless authorities establish that removing them would likely lead to continued or renewed dumping and injury. SAPA is therefore required to demonstrate that the conditions that justified the protection have not disappeared and that the SACU poultry industry remains vulnerable to renewed import pressure.
The evidence submitted for the latest review includes substantial calculated dumping margins. A margin of 425.64 percent was determined for German imports, although South African Revenue Service records showed no imports of the affected product from Germany during the January-to-December 2025 investigation period. TradeMap data also recorded no direct German exports of the product to South Africa during the same period.
Because there were no qualifying German shipments directly into South Africa, German exports to Ghana were used to establish the export price, while domestic German chicken-leg prices reported to the European Commission were used to determine the normal value. The resulting calculation formed part of the evidence supporting the initiation of the review.
For the Netherlands, the dumping margin was calculated at 32.48 percent, using official SARS import statistics to determine the export price. For the United Kingdom, a margin of 61.84 percent was determined. SARS recorded no imports of the affected product from the UK during the investigation period, so TradeMap information was used to establish the export price.
These figures should not be interpreted as new duties being imposed on European poultry imports. They form part of the evidence used to determine whether a full sunset review is justified and whether the existing measures should remain in place. The final outcome will depend on evidence submitted by producers, exporters, importers and other interested parties during the investigation.
The products covered by the investigation are frozen bone-in chicken portions classified under tariff subheading 0207.14.9. ITAC is examining dumping during the period from January 1 to December 31, 2025, while the assessment of injury to the SACU poultry industry covers the period from January 2023 to December 2025.
SAPA has warned that the removal of the duties could result in higher import volumes and put pressure on several indicators of local industry performance. These include sales, profits, capacity utilisation, production, productivity, investment and cash flow. If imported chicken gains market share at the expense of local producers, the association argues, the consequences could extend beyond individual companies to employment, investment and businesses operating throughout the poultry value chain.
The poultry industry is economically important because commercial chicken production supports a much wider network of businesses. Feed manufacturers depend on poultry producers for demand, while hatcheries, veterinary suppliers, equipment companies, transporters, processors, cold-chain operators, wholesalers and retailers are all connected to the sector. Changes in poultry import volumes can therefore have effects throughout the agricultural and food-processing economy.
At the farm level, feed remains one of the most important components of poultry production costs, while electricity, fuel, labour, animal-health products, transport and infrastructure add to the cost of getting chicken from the farm to the consumer. This means local producers can face significant pressure when competing with imported products, particularly where overseas suppliers operate at large scale and have established international supply chains.
The debate, however, is not simply about protecting producers. Chicken is one of South Africa’s most important sources of affordable animal protein, particularly for low- and middle-income households. This creates a difficult policy balance for authorities: protecting domestic producers from unfair trade practices while ensuring that consumers continue to have access to affordable poultry products.
ITAC has previously recognised this tension. When anti-dumping duties on other poultry products were reinstated in 2023, Trade, Industry and Competition Minister Ebrahim Patel said the measures were intended to protect local producers and jobs from dumping, but also warned that domestic producers should not use the protection to impose unjustified price increases on consumers.
This balance will remain important during the latest review. If duties remain in place, domestic producers could receive greater protection from potentially unfair import competition. If they are removed, importers and processors could gain greater access to international supplies, potentially increasing competition in the market. The long-term impact will depend on import volumes, international prices, domestic production costs and how producers respond.
The European poultry trade has already played a significant role in South Africa’s chicken market. ITAC’s historical records show that imports from European Union countries, including Germany and the Netherlands, increased as tariff arrangements changed, contributing to concerns from local producers about growing import penetration.
South Africa’s poultry trade policy has also evolved beyond the European market. The country has imposed or reviewed anti-dumping measures involving poultry from several other countries, including Brazil, Denmark, Ireland, Poland, Spain and the United States. This reflects the broader challenge facing domestic producers as they compete in an international poultry market where major exporting countries have significant production and processing capacity.
For South African producers, the latest review could therefore become an important test of whether existing trade protection remains necessary after five years. SAPA will need to demonstrate that the potential return of dumped imports could cause meaningful harm to the SACU industry, while exporters and importers will have an opportunity to challenge the evidence and present their own arguments.
ITAC has invited importers, exporters and other interested parties to participate in the investigation, with responses generally required within 30 days of the August 14 notice. The information received will help the commission assess the likelihood of continued or recurring dumping and whether the domestic industry would suffer material injury if the duties were allowed to expire.
The outcome will be closely watched across the poultry value chain because the decision could influence the level of competition in South Africa’s frozen chicken market, the investment environment for local producers and the future flow of European poultry into the SACU region.
For farmers and poultry companies, continued protection could provide greater certainty to invest in production capacity, technology, processing and employment. For importers and consumers, the removal of duties could increase access to imported chicken and potentially intensify price competition. The challenge for policymakers will be ensuring that trade measures address unfair competition without weakening consumer access to affordable protein.
As South Africa approaches the August 22 expiry date, the ITAC review places the future of European chicken duties under renewed scrutiny. Its eventual decision will not only determine how Germany, the Netherlands and UK poultry compete in the South African market, but could also shape the wider balance between domestic poultry production, food affordability, investment and trade across the SACU region.
