Poultry remains one of the most affordable and essential protein sources for the fast-growing populations of East and Southern Africa. But behind the scenes, a crisis is brewing—soaring soybean prices and dwindling supplies in Zambia and Malawi are threatening the stability of the poultry sector, leaving farmers and consumers facing uncertain times.
Soybeans: The Backbone of Poultry Production
Soybeans are a crucial component of poultry feed, and feed costs make up 60-70% of total production expenses. When soybean prices surge, poultry production becomes more expensive, directly impacting affordability for consumers. Small-scale farmers are feeling the brunt of this crisis, as they depend on fluctuating market prices and have little negotiating power. Larger producers, who often grow their own feed, are somewhat cushioned from the turmoil.
Unfortunately, 2024 has been a tough year for soybean production in both Zambia and Malawi, with bad weather and market manipulation creating a perfect storm of challenges.
Zambia’s Soybean Plunge: A 74% Production Drop
Zambia, a major soybean producer in the region, experienced a staggering 74% drop in soybean production in 2024. The reasons? A combination of poor rainfall and a market structure that discourages farmers from growing soybeans. In 2023, large buyers forced prices down to below $400 per tonne—far below South African benchmark prices—leaving farmers with little incentive to plant more crops. As a result, soybean planting was cut in half for 2024. Add extreme weather to the mix, and the result was a severe production collapse.
Malawi’s Price Shock: The Market Manipulation Factor
Meanwhile, in Malawi, an extreme drought—the worst in a century—caused a 20% decline in soybean production. However, prices skyrocketed far beyond what this supply drop justified. Between May and November 2024, soybean prices in Malawi surged by 48%, surpassing Zambia’s and becoming the highest in the region.
What caused this dramatic price inflation? A handful of powerful traders and processors control the market, setting prices at will. Despite producing enough soybeans to meet local demand, Malawi still saw record-high prices, proving that limited competition—rather than supply shortages—was the real driver of the crisis.
The Impact on Small Poultry Farmers
Economists at the African Market Observatory warn that a lack of competition and price manipulation are key factors behind the soaring feed costs. Small-scale poultry farmers, already struggling with razor-thin profit margins, are being squeezed even further. With feed prices eating into their earnings, many are cutting back production or shutting down entirely.
Climate change is adding another layer of instability, with the 2023/24 El Niño weather pattern causing both droughts in southern Africa and excessive rainfall in the east, disrupting agricultural production across the continent.
A Regional Challenge That Needs a Regional Solution
Despite these obstacles, Zambia and Malawi remain the region’s top soybean producers, supplying soybeans and soymeal to neighboring countries like Tanzania and Kenya. Zambia’s production had been on an upward trajectory, growing from 297,000 tonnes in 2020 to 650,000 tonnes in 2023. But the 2024 crisis saw production crash to just 170,000 tonnes. Without proper storage facilities, Zambian farmers are forced to sell their crops immediately after harvest, giving large processors even more control over pricing and market conditions.
Meanwhile, Malawi’s soybean prices soared past $700 per tonne in June 2024, reaching nearly $900 by year-end—well above regional norms. The government attempted to stabilize the situation by restricting soybean exports while allowing soymeal exports, but this only distorted the market further. In Zambia, prices remained more stable thanks to soybean imports and reduced demand from processors who had stockpiled supplies from the previous season. However, power shortages in Zambia also slowed soybean processing, compounding the issue.
A Call for Regional Action
The events of 2024 highlight the urgent need for a coordinated regional response to fix market inefficiencies and address anti-competitive practices. Zambia has launched an investigation into its commercial poultry market, but a broader, multi-country approach is essential. Without reforms to boost competition and improve market transparency, the region’s poultry industry—and food security—will remain vulnerable to price shocks and production shortfalls.
For poultry farmers and consumers alike, the stakes couldn’t be higher. Affordable feed is essential to sustaining poultry production, and with demand for poultry set to quadruple in sub-Saharan Africa by 2050, addressing these challenges now is critical for the future of food security in the region.
