Cattle markets continued to weaken last week, with declines driven less by supply–demand fundamentals and more by investor uncertainty. Nearby live cattle fell 6.4% to $221.35 per hundredweight, while feeder cattle slipped 3.7% to $326.40.
In the absence of the CFTC Commitments of Traders report, the exact cause of the selloff is unclear. But recent price action suggests the sharp rally from July to mid-October — roughly $50 per hundredweight in feeders and $25 in live cattle — may have been overstretched. The pullback appears to be a correction to that rapid run-up.
Concerns about Argentine beef imports, potential tariff changes for Brazil, and the possible reopening of the U.S.–Mexico border to cattle continue to cloud the outlook. Market sentiment is also being shaped by political rhetoric around high beef prices. Still, the broader driver seems to be managed money stepping back from a market they view as unpredictable.
Cash markets have softened but remain more stable than futures. Northern trade held steady at $230 per hundredweight, while Southern prices slipped $3 to $4 to settle at $232. In contrast, December futures ended the week much lower at $221, well off October’s highs when contracts climbed as far as $248 even though cash topped out near $240.
Technical signals add more pressure. Both feeder and live cattle charts show unresolved gaps to the downside, and last week’s failure to recover the most recent gap has left the market looking weak. With so many unknowns, few traders are willing to take long positions.
In the short term, money flow and technical patterns are driving volatility. But over the long run, fundamentals will determine the market’s direction.
Disclaimer: Trading futures and options involves substantial risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Information is believed to be reliable but has not been independently verified. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
