The global poultry trade has undergone significant shifts since 2018, shaped by slower market expansion, increased trade restrictions, heightened volatility, and the emergence of new exporting countries. According to RaboResearch’s latest World Poultry Map, Brazil has solidified its position as the dominant exporter, accounting for 90% of global trade growth. Other players, including Thailand, China, Ukraine, and Russia, have also expanded their market share. However, the industry faces a future of slow growth and persistent price fluctuations.
Poultry Trade Growth Slows Amid Disruptions
Between 2018 and 2023, global poultry meat trade increased by just 8%—equivalent to 1 million metric tonnes. This modest growth has been hindered by a series of disruptions, including:
- The COVID-19 pandemic, which impacted supply chains and consumer demand
- Avian influenza outbreaks, affecting production and trade flows
- African swine fever, shifting protein demand dynamics
- Geopolitical tensions, including the Ukraine war and trade disputes between Western nations and China
- Rising feed costs and economic slowdowns in key markets
- A focus on food security policies in emerging economies, limiting new export opportunities
Brazil Leads in a Challenging Market
Despite the overall sluggish growth, Brazil has emerged as the clear leader in global poultry exports, capturing nearly 90% of the market’s expansion. According to Nan-Dirk Mulder, Senior Analyst for Animal Protein at RaboResearch, Brazil’s success is driven by its cost advantages and diversified export strategy.
While markets such as China, Mexico, the UK, and the Philippines have increased poultry imports, others—including Saudi Arabia and South Africa—have scaled back purchases as part of food security initiatives. Meanwhile, Thailand, China, Ukraine, and Russia have bolstered their export volumes, while the US and EU have experienced declines.
Diverging Export Values Across Key Players
The global poultry trade, valued at $32 billion (or $48 billion when intra-EU trade is included), is dominated by five key exporters: Brazil, the US, the EU, Thailand, and China. Brazil leads with a 30% market share by value, followed by the US and the EU at 16% each. Brexit has further shifted dynamics, turning EU-UK trade into a global transaction stream, boosting the EU’s overall market standing.
Thailand holds a 13% share, followed by China, Turkey, Ukraine, and Russia. While Brazil remains the largest exporter by volume, its export value per tonne lags behind Thailand, China, and Chile, which benefit from access to high-value markets.
Rising Trade Value Driven by Higher Prices
Global poultry trade value has surged by 20-25% since 2020, primarily due to price increases rather than volume growth, which has remained at just 6%. The average poultry export price has risen from $1,400 per metric tonne in 2004 to approximately $2,400 today.
Key factors contributing to rising prices include:
- Higher production costs and export price inflation
- Increased demand for processed poultry products
- Volatile shipping costs
- Brexit’s impact on trade flows
Outlook: Slow Growth with Market Realignments
Looking ahead, global poultry trade is expected to grow at a modest rate of 1-2% annually over the next five years. The primary constraints will come from food security strategies in key growth regions like Asia, Africa, and the Middle East, which could challenge major exporters.
Geopolitical instability, economic fluctuations, and disease outbreaks—especially avian influenza—will continue shaping the market. While Brazil is poised to strengthen its dominance further, Thai and Chinese exports are expected to grow at above-average rates. Additionally, Russia and Ukraine could expand their presence, while Argentina may re-emerge as a major exporter if its economic conditions improve.
Meanwhile, emerging players such as Paraguay, Vietnam, Colombia, and South Africa are gradually gaining traction, potentially reshaping the competitive landscape in the years to come.
